Projection of Vulnerability Parameters in the Java Sea Using Integration of Marine Biogeochemical and Land-Use Change Models
Vincentius Siregar, Alan F. Koropitan

Source: SEAMEO BIOTROP's Research Grant | 2017


The integration between the biogeochemical cycles model of climate change and the model of land-use change to nutrient loads in related to ecosystem responsiveness which is suggests that coastal and marine ecosystems tend to be influenced by land use changes, while for climate change is not too. Simulation results show, nutriend loads as the main cause of increase in primary productivity rate compared to sea surface temperature. But in another side, sea surface temperature will be very vulnerable to suppress primary productivity rate, if the temperature conditions are above normal conditions. The Java Sea primary productivity level is very much influenced by the nutrient loads if the higher human activity on land. While the effect of sea surface temperature changes not bee too significant, otherwise the primary productivity increased can be suppressed, if there is an increase in temperature. Thus the Java Sea can be regarded as one of the waters and the sea in Indonesia whose primary productivity level is strongly influenced by the activity of land land use change in Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan, and if said to be vulnerable by the influence of climate change impact is not very big impact to the decline in primary productivity rates due to the dominance of nutrient loads loads from the mainland is very strong compared to changes in ocean temperature from the climate around the Java Sea – Indonesia

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